The phantom of the recession: how real timber prices and harvest timing define forestland value, 2021–2025 and beyond Understanding inflation-adjusted timber economics in a cycle of hidden decline

Abstract

This paper introduces the “Phantom of the Recession,” a forest sector recession that was obscured by inflationary distortions and masked by nominal price gains from 2021 through 2025. Unlike prior downturns, this economic phase eluded conventional indicators while eroding timberland value in real terms. Through the lens of the Real Price Appreciation (RPA) Forecast Tool — embedded within the Forest Resource Analysis System Software (FRASS) — I reveal how timber markets entered a hidden cycle of value decline, despite appearances of growth. The RPA Forecast Tool models inflation-adjusted log prices by species, sort, and grade, projecting future valuation paths and optimizing harvest timing across three timber rotations. I present econometric evidence, case studies, and forecasting insights that demonstrate how integrating biometric and economic signals enables landowners and public agencies to navigate recessionary cycles. Findings indicate that failing to recognize real price devaluation risks can lead to suboptimal harvests, undervaluation of public trust assets, and misaligned resource allocation. My approach provides cycle-aware, landowner-specific valuation tools that restore strategic clarity. While the Phantom of the Recession may escape GDP headlines, its imprint is etched into forestland valuation — with lasting implications for landowners, investors, and policymakers alike.